Evidence Builder · Thought Leader · Trusted Advisor
Evidence for safer cities.
I study why crime rises and falls, which public safety investments pay off, and how to get the evidence into the hands of people who make decisions.

About
Research that has to work in the real world
I'm a Distinguished Senior Fellow at NORC at the University of Chicago, the organization's highest distinction for researchers, and I direct its Center on Public Safety & Justice. The Center brings criminologists, economists, demographers, and public health researchers together to give policymakers and practitioners data they can act on, including the Chicago Public Safety DataHub.
My research focuses on the economics of crime and justice policy: what crime costs, which programs reduce it, and how governments can pay for prevention that works. I've led randomized trials of DNA in police investigations, cost-benefit studies of violence intervention, and evaluations for city, state, and federal agencies and national foundations. Before NORC, I spent nearly two decades at the Urban Institute, where I became a Senior Fellow.
I wrote What Is the Price of Crime? and co-edited Cost-Benefit Analysis and Crime Control and Juvenile Drug Courts and Teen Substance Abuse. I'm an elected Fellow of the Academy of Experimental Criminology and an elected member of the Council on Criminal Justice, where I chaired the Crime Trends Working Group. I serve on the editorial boards of Criminology and the Journal of Experimental Criminology, and I've taught graduate courses at the University of Pennsylvania and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy.
I hold a BA from Kenyon College, an MPP from the University of Michigan, and a PhD from the University of Maryland.
Research
Areas of work
Why crime rises and falls
Explaining national crime declines and spikes, forecasting violence, and making the case for macro-criminology as its own discipline.
Community violence intervention
Validating the expansion of Cure Violence in New York City, evaluating Pennsylvania's violence prevention programs, and a multi-year evaluation of Chicago's Public Safety Task Force.
Cost-benefit analysis
New estimates of what victimization costs, including the HAVEN framework for measuring harms from violence, and cost-benefit methods that tell decision-makers what a program is worth.
Paying for what works
Pay for Success, federal outcomes-based funding, and new ways to connect capital to the measurable results of evidence-based prevention.
Randomized trials in policing
The DNA Field Experiment, which received the ASC Division of Experimental Criminology's Outstanding Field Trial award, and new trials of DNA in property crime and CODIS notification.
Crime and firearms data
Blueprints for a national firearms data infrastructure, an open data repository on police use of force, and better measurement of nonfatal shootings.
Writing
Where to read me
External Processing
Independent analysis of crime data and public safety policy, written for anyone who wants the numbers explained.
Subscribe → Policy journalVital City
Essays on public safety and the future of cities.
Read essays → ResearchNORC reports
Evaluations, briefs, and technical reports from the Center on Public Safety & Justice.
Browse NORC →Latest from External Processing
All posts →- Oct 16, 2026Ranking 30 Cities on Homicide and ViolenceDifferent cities, different dangers
- Sep 24, 2026Using Near Misses to Estimate p(doom) in AILessons from crime policy research
- Aug 30, 2026
- Aug 24, 2026As the Violence Decline Approaches Its End, How Does the ARPA Explanation Hold Up?Plus, responding to critics
- Aug 13, 2026Financing Evidence-Based PreventionWith a little help from Matt Levine
Books
- 2010Cost-Benefit Analysis and Crime ControlEdited book · Urban Institute Press · with T. Dunworth and K. Marsh
- 2009What Is the Price of Crime? New Estimates of the Cost of Criminal VictimizationBook · University of Maryland
- 2004Juvenile Drug Courts and Teen Substance AbuseEdited book · Urban Institute Press · with J. Butts
Selected articles and essays
- 2026
- 2026The Rising Cost of Women’s Justice System InvolvementCouncil on Criminal Justice · with A. Bhati and S. Kennedy
- 2025
- 2024The Cost of Crime: The HAVEN Conceptual Framework for Measuring Victim Harms from ViolenceJustice Quarterly · with C. Roman et al.
- 2024Firearm Homicide Demographics Before and After the COVID-19 PandemicJAMA Network Open · with A. Piquero
- 2024The Golden Age of Crime Reduction Is NowVital City · with E. Glazer
- 2022From Causal Mechanisms to Policy Mechanisms: Why Did Crime Decline and What Lessons Can Be Learned from It?American Journal of Criminal Justice
- 2020How Do Drug Courts Work?Journal of Experimental Criminology · with J. Yahner and J. Zweig
- 2009The DNA Field Experiment: A Randomized Trial of the Cost-Effectiveness of Using DNA to Solve Property CrimesJournal of Experimental Criminology · with S. Reid, A. Chalfin, and C. Knight
Speaking & advising
Bring the evidence into the room
I speak to legislators, city leaders, funders, police executives, and community organizations, and I advise governments and foundations on how to build, test, and pay for public safety strategies.
Talks & briefings
- Keynotes on national crime trends
- Legislative and council testimony
- Executive and board briefings
Advising
- Evaluation design
- Cost-benefit analysis
- Outcome-based and prevention financing
Media
- Interviews on crime data and trends
- Background for reporters
- Podcasts and panels
Contact
Start a conversation
Tell me about your event, project, or question. I read every message and reply within a few business days.